College basketball odds: schedule, tempo and tournament pressure

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The short version

Tournament basketball is a different sport from conference play, and the markets know it. Neutral venues, compressed turnarounds, unfamiliar officials and one-and-done pressure all change how teams score — and therefore how totals and spreads are priced.

Neutral sites remove home advantage

A regular-season total bakes in a home crowd, familiar rims and a settled routine. Move the same teams to a neutral arena and some of that is removed, which is why tournament totals are frequently lower than the corresponding regular-season number.

Short turnarounds and rotation depth

Playing two or three games in a week exposes a thin rotation. Teams that rely heavily on a short bench can fade late, which shows up in second-half markets and in totals more than in the opening spread.

Why the sample is smaller than it feels

A single-elimination tournament gives you very little information about any individual team. A hot shooting night decides a game and tells you almost nothing about the next one. Treat tournament results as a series of small samples rather than as a trend.

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